The much-awaited Suriya starrer Kanguva has garnered much attention from the fans and the industry. At one point, it was even projected to have a landmark opening, crossing over Rs 100 crore in potential first-day collections. But things seem to have changed now. The Siva directorial was initially scheduled for an October 10 release, when it was postponed to November 14 in what was a Diwali clash. With all these market factors, the last-minute date shift saw Kanguva put a new and more modest opening projection at Rs 60 crore worldwide.
Date Change Shifts Release Date Brings New Challenges
Originally slated for October, Kanguva will now find itself competing head-on in a crowding arena, given the rush advance marketing released in place of the film. On a happier note, Kanguva has been postpone to 14th November, and hence finds itself competing with a flurry of releases that will be diagonally opposite, from Diwali blockbusters across multiple film industries.
The date shift has thrown an eye over screen availability as several theatres are already occupied due to big-ticket releases. Market saturation of Diwali blockbusters might jeopardize the release of Kanguva, in particular across regions where local-language films are going to be major front-runners.
Mixed pre-release buzz and humble trailer response.
Despite high expectations from Kanguva, the trailers so far released did not garner much of an accolade. Although Suriya fans are invariably excited, the trailers failed to meet the anticipation expected for a high-budget action fantasy film. The trailer did not even make much of a resounding impact; that’s also making it harder to maintain the pre-release momentum initially built around Kanguva, thus resulting in a more tempered outlook.
One other unconventional factor is that the film has released on a mid-week date. And this is also impacting its prospects for a good opening. Big releases have always benefited from the Friday or weekend release, and ideally to reach the masses on weekends. Mid-week is going to impact Kanguva’s first-day collections as it needs to build up to the weekend.
Area-Wise Opening Projections: Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Overseas Markets
Let’s take a look at Kanguva’s opening prospects in various markets and see how it fares in the midst of challenges:
Tamil Nadu: Rs 15 Crore Opening Now Hanging in the Balance
Initially, the opening day was projected at Rs 15 crore, according to the estimates in Tamil Nadu, which is Suriya’s full fan circle. But it may have become quite optimistic because of limited screens and revenue-sharing bondage with the theaters, which may further restrain the film from its start. Current expectations of it are going on a lower level, and some trade specialists feel that it may even end up in single digits in Tamil Nadu if screen restraint issues do not come to an amicable solution.
Karnataka: Slow Advance Sales
Karnataka is another vital market for Kanguva, though advance sales have witnessed lukewarm interest until now. Though Suriya enjoys a wide fan base in this belt, advance ticket sales have been slow here and the film stands the chance of not recovering its initial expectations here. As other big Diwali releases are gaining a lot of attention in Karnataka, Kanguva may have a tough opening here too.
International Markets: $3 Million Target Hitting Rodendum
Internationally, Kanguva looks to open at $3 million, but thus far, the advance ticket sales indicate that it could lose that race. The film has collectively pre-sold around $500,000 overseas so far. While one can certainly imagine a stronger opening further ahead of release, depending on the improvement in buzz, the film might take a hit internationally as well.
Telugu and Hindi Markets: Miscellany
The Telugu market is relatively stronger, which would help many South Indian films in generating sufficient revenue. Bookings haven’t opened yet in the Telugu states, but advance interest seems relatively more here than elsewhere. Suriya has been aggressively promoting Kanguva in Telugu-speaking states. This market may be crucial for the film’s overall opening as well.
Pre-release buzz however hasn’t picked up much in the Hindi market. Even with a pan-India appeal of Kanguva being a fantasy action film, word of mouth in the Hindi-speaking belt hasn’t yet kicked in at the same level, hence the low pre-release buzz. Without much traction in the Hindi belt, the nationwide impact may not be too substantial even for Kanguva, though strong word-of-mouth shall help at the box office if it fares well in its initial runs.
Opening day prediction: Rs 60 crores at the worldwide box office.
Taking into consideration all factors of date shift, trailer response, competition, and market-specific challenges, one can bank on Kanguva garnering close to Rs 60 crore opening day worldwide. It is still a very decent number, but certainly way below the earlier hope of a Rs 100 crore-plus opening. The added effect of a mid-week release and stiff competition from some other Diwali blockbusters has pegged the actual projection of the film.
Can Kanguva handle the initial challenges?
Even though it has an opening that is projected to be low, Kanguva can still do well if the words of mouth are positive and capture the imagination of the audience over the Diwali holiday period. Suriya has some enormous fan following, and the reputation he has as a bankable star would help the film gain traction in the second and third days, especially if the review consensus is good.
Fantasy action movies also assure the repeat business, at least from the age groups. In case Kanguva does well with its target audience, then it will have good week-on-week collections that would add up to a box office success, irrespective of the slow beginning.
Read Also :- Dhanush Stars in Tere Ishk Mein, Romantic Drama with Kriti Sanon
Conclusion
Kanguva, Suriya’s movie, may open in the range of Rs 60 crores as it is getting the new date due to the change in Diwali clashes. Its strong fan base and likelihood to get good reviews from the people might just make Kanguva overcome the early initial difficulties, and this fantasy action flick is poised to be a solid performer at the box office. All eyes are on this, now that it opens and lets fans get a feel whether the filmmakers above the challenges have what it takes to make their movies successful with fans to buy tickets.
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